![](/competition-images/66295b9cd992a.jpg)
2024 Sockeye International
Predictions
Ugashik River's Sockeye run
4,265,431
Quesnel's Sockeye run
5,111
Kvichak River's Sockeye run
6,680,000
Stellako's Sockeye run
99,356
Egegik River's Sockeye run
8,121,322
Raft River's Sockeye run
6,219
Igushik River's Sockeye run
1,141,754
Naknek River's Sockeye run
5,879,159
Wood River's Sockeye run
8,014,203
Chilko River's Sockeye run
341,091
All of Columbia River's Sockeye run
334,021
Nushagak River's Sockeye run
3,603,879
Alagnak River's Sockeye run
2,555,945
Stuart River's Late Sockeye run
17,850 Prediction method
Submitted on May 30, 2024
Hierarchical mixed lag GP regression
Abstract
I fit models of run size by river as a function of various lags of run size, escapement, and run size by age class using nonparametric regression, specifically the separable length-scale Gaussian process (GP) model as implemented in `GPEDM` (Munch and Rogers 2022). For the Fraser and Bristol Bay river systems, I used a hierarchical model structure. From a non-exhaustive search, I selected the best model for each river based on leave-future-out mean absolute percent error over the years 2012-2023.
Supporting Documents
No documents submitted
Prediction Model
Submitted on May 30, 2024
Description
See attached word document for description. Models are attached as R scripts. I've included the Bristol Bay historical forecasts.