Competitions2024 Sockeye InternationalOldRetiredGuy's submission
2024 Sockeye International
OldRetiredGuy
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Predictions

Ugashik River's Sockeye run
6,223,232
Quesnel's Sockeye run
2,150
Kvichak River's Sockeye run
12,589,831
Stellako's Sockeye run
25,091
Egegik River's Sockeye run
13,368,343
Raft River's Sockeye run
11,407
Igushik River's Sockeye run
2,253,450
Naknek River's Sockeye run
7,403,030
Wood River's Sockeye run
11,039,607
Chilko River's Sockeye run
123,389
All of Columbia River's Sockeye run
219,673
Nushagak River's Sockeye run
7,799,733
Alagnak River's Sockeye run
2,928,879
Stuart River's Late Sockeye run
14,621

Prediction method

Submitted on Jun 22, 2024
Simple pattern recognition and trends
Abstract
Tp preserve approximate stationarity, all time series were truncated to post-2000 due to an apparent regime shift. I was able to quantify previous patterns for predicting the Columbia run, giving a fairly precise answer. Patterns were still useful for the Fraser system, but were treated qualitatively. Patterns were present in the Bristol Bay system before 2000, but are no longer useful, so I used simple regression to extrapolate the strong temporal trend.
Supporting Documents

Prediction Model

Submitted on Jun 22, 2024
Description