Competitions
2025 Sockeye International
PACEAS Forecast- PACific Ecosystem Approach for SALmon FORECASTing's submission

2025 Sockeye International
Predictions
Ugashik River's Sockeye run
8,980,758
Quesnel's Sockeye run
128,392
Kvichak River's Sockeye run
11,895,509
Stellako's Sockeye run
59,209
Egegik River's Sockeye run
5,213,997
Raft River's Sockeye run
18,278
Igushik River's Sockeye run
1,326,347
Naknek River's Sockeye run
3,061,509
Wood River's Sockeye run
11,126,228
Chilko River's Sockeye run
319,990
All of Columbia River's Sockeye run
499,456
Nushagak River's Sockeye run
13,039,231
Alagnak River's Sockeye run
5,109,841
Stuart River's Late Sockeye run
42,022 Prediction method
Submitted on Jul 03, 2025
Multiview embedding with environmental covariates
Abstract
We used multiview embedding, a form of empirical dynamic modelling. Rather than define mechanistic models, the approach translates time series of data into a path through a multi-dimensional space, whose axes are lagged values of the variables. We modelled each stock separately, and included various relevant environmental covariates. These were sea-surface temperature, Pink Salmon abundance in the North Pacific, Fraser River discharge, zooplankton in the Strait of Georgia, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Pacific Current Bifurcation index.
All code is available at https://github.com/andrew-edwards/sockeyePrize, though is not easily usable by anyone else at the moment and there are various
improvements we would make. Most of the covariates were taken from our pacea R package.
References for background:
Edwards A.M, Rogers L.A., and Holt C.A. (2024). Explaining empirical dynamic modelling using verbal, graphical and mathematical approaches. Ecology and
Evolution, 14:e10903, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10903
Edwards A.M., Tai T.C., Watson J., Peña M.A., Hilborn A., Hannah C.G., Rooper C.N., Flynn K.L., and Oldford, G.L. (2024). pacea: An R package of Pacific
ecosystem information to help facilitate an ecosystem approach to fisheries management. https://github.com/pbs-assess/pacea
Ye H., and Sugihara, G. (2016). Information leverage in interconnected ecosystems: overcoming the curse of dimensionality. Science, 353:922-925. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag0863.
Supporting Documents
No documents submitted
Prediction Model
Submitted on Jul 03, 2025
Description
See above. All our results are saved as .pdf files, but are not really written in a concise way that would be easily understandable by others. There is also one .pdf file (generated from R Markdown files available in our GitHub site) for each stock.
We used previously published methods and our two public R packages (pacea and pbsEDM). Our work is fully reproducible and traceable, just not easily run by others at the moment.
Doing retrospectives would be prohibitively difficult with our current set up. We aim to refine our methods for next year.