Competitions2025 Sockeye InternationalTeam Far South Salmon's submission
2025 Sockeye International
Team Far South Salmon
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Predictions

Ugashik River's Sockeye run
5,934,277
Quesnel's Sockeye run
1,513
Kvichak River's Sockeye run
13,950,212
Stellako's Sockeye run
84,056
Egegik River's Sockeye run
6,546,569
Raft River's Sockeye run
2,324
Igushik River's Sockeye run
1,001,062
Naknek River's Sockeye run
3,585,075
Wood River's Sockeye run
12,191,618
Chilko River's Sockeye run
359,789
All of Columbia River's Sockeye run
330,421
Nushagak River's Sockeye run
5,160,120
Alagnak River's Sockeye run
3,963,700
Stuart River's Late Sockeye run
76,497

Prediction method

Submitted on Jul 04, 2025
Biologically-informed neural networks for spawning salmon forecasts
Abstract
I implemented an explicit, age-structured population model for sockeye salmon runs that could be modified to include dynamics of varying complexity. Survival, smoltification, and spawning probabilites at each age and time step were modeled as constants and as time-varying functions of environmental covariates using modular neural networks. The goal of this approach was to allow the neural network components of the model to fit the unknown biological rates, while retaining the mechanistic structure of an age-structured population dynamics model. Ideally, this should allow for model-fitting flexibility while reduce the number of parameters required and the chances of overfitting. I also used non-mechanistic recurrent neural networks as an alternative model to provide a point of comparison.
Supporting Documents

Prediction Model

Submitted on Jul 04, 2025
Description