TeamsSalmon Cruz2026 Sockey International — Fraser River submission
Salmon Cruz
2026 Sockey International — Fraser River
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Predictions

Quesnel's Sockeye run
1,298,708
Stellako's Sockeye run
237,996
Raft River's Sockeye run
29,683
Chilko River's Sockeye run
1,960,874
Stuart River's Late Sockeye run
168,705

Prediction method

Submitted on Jul 14, 2026
Gaussian Process Empirical Dynamic Models
Abstract
We used Gaussian Process Empirical Dynamic Models (GP-EDM) to forecast sockeye run sizes. We considered a variety of predictors, including total returns, returns of each age class, and several environmental variables (NPGO, PDO, PNI, and CUTI). All models were fit in R using the GPEDM package (https://tanyalrogers.github.io/GPEDM). Data from prior to 2016 were used to train each model, and then one-year-ahead predictions (with sequential model updating) were made on the 2016-2025 data. Of the models that achieved similar median APEs on the ten year test set, a single model was selected for the Stellako, Raft, and Late Stuart populations. For the Chilko and Quesnel populations, different model classes performed similarly but produced notably different forecasts, so model averaging was performed.

Prediction Model

Submitted on Jul 14, 2026
Description